Fundamentals
Euro zone
Mar 11, 2009 Minimum Bid Rate 1.50 2.00 -50 bps
Q4 2008 Gross Domestic Product 1,910.76 1,939.24 -1.47 %
Jan 2009 Unemployment Rate 8.18 8.03 +15 bps
Feb 2009 Annual Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices(Change) 1.20 1.10 +10 bps
Dec 2008 Trade Balance -0.26 -4.01 +93.57 %
USA
Feb 2009 Non Farm Payroll -651 -655 +0.61 %
Dec 16, 2008 Federal Fund Target Rate 0.00 1.00 -100 bps
Feb 2009 Unemployment Rate 8.1 7.6 +50 bps
Q4 2008 Gross Domestic Product 11,525.0 11,712.4 -1.60 %
Feb 2009 Consumer Price Index 213.007 212.174 +0.39 %
Feb 2009 Producer Price Index 171.3 171.1 +0.12 %
20090318 FOMC Meeting Announcement Report
Long Term Analysis (Daily Chart)
| Market condition | Trending | Close, ADX | Inventories |
| Market Profile 2009.03.19 | POC:1.3621 (+4.6%) | Value area:1.3531 1.3711 | Unit range:1.3418 1.3737 |
| Previous Market Profile | POC:1.3014 | Value area:1.2833 1.3230 | Unit range:1.2832 1.3531 |
Short Term Analysis (H4 Chart)
| Market condition | Trending | Close > MA20 | Inventories: balanced |
| Market Profile 2009.03.18 20:00 | POC:1.3654 (+4.9%) | Value area:1.3524 1.3737 | Unit range:1.3419 1.3737 |
| Previous Market Profile | POC:1.3004 | Value area:1.2930 1.3078 | Unit range:1.2925 1.3427 |
| Minus Developments | Directional move start: 1.3074 | Development start: 1.3450 | |
| Parameters Hold | POC: yes | Value area: Close safely inside | Unit Range: yes |
| Market Closes and position (H or L) | DOW, S&P: 7209, 762, falling | Gold: 952.4, rising | Euro$: 98.7, |
| USD Correlations | as EURUSD |
Next week Important economic data releases: 25/03 Durable Goods Orders (USA), 26/03 GDP (USA)
Commentary:
USD looks like to have lost safe heaven. Anyway both USD and EZ economies give no rebound signals. Someone consider this move as a simple EUR retracement.
MP daily is asymmetric: we would see a MP distribution after the initiating move in the 1.3400/1.3700 range. MP H4 starts to show the distribution.
My view is still bearish on EUR.
EURUSD: Trigger@1.3737 , Sell limit@1.3737, Stop loss@1.3837, Taget1@1.3654, Taget2@1.3524
USDCHF: Trigger@1.3737, 1.1159, Buy limit@1.1148, Stop loss@1.1159, Taget1@1.1234, Taget2@1.1456
